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Soja analysed Chinese grain oily market in August 2008 report

From;    Author:Stand originally

August, because of rebounding when crude oil is short, the market acclaims weather, option market of domestic and international soybean stops after seeing year nadir drop rebound, domestic soybean spot market also stops drop hasten is firm. Average price of whole nation of third class soja is 5030 yuan this month / ton, with on comparing of phase of the moon drops 0.41% ; Soja of third class of Zhengzhou grain terminal market all valence is 5238 yuan / ton, with on comparing of phase of the moon drops 3.66% .

One, the way corp is growing of domestic and international soja is good in sight of bumper harvest of new season soybean

This month, the way corp is growing of soja of domestic and international new season is good, if later period does not appear big natural disaster, predict bumper harvest of soybean of the Northern Hemisphere is become basically this year finality. The weekly crop that announces from American Ministry of Agriculture grows report the coming year, end on August 17, american soja grows good rate is 62% , the corresponding period was last year 54% , be in last few years best, although the last ten-day of a month comes out advocate likelihood yield an area has arid likelihood, but more is fund to weather the hype of this one subject matter. In the meantime, domestic soja also the way corp is growing is good, insect pest affects very little to soybean crop, heilongjiang is browbeaten aridly and not quite, and affect to weather of later period early frost, the likelihood suffers influence area to hold optimistic view mostly. Be opposite according to concerning an orgnaization Heilongjiang advocate the investigation that produces an area, the general height of current soybean plant is 60-70 centimeter, early days moisture absorbs abundant individual plant height to achieve 80 centimeters. Knot pod layer achieves 10-13 layer generally, knot pod number achieves 31-36 / individual plant. Hopeful of this year per unit area yield achieves 311 jins / mu, always produce hopeful to achieve 9.951 million tons, relatively on one agriculture year increase production 3.07 million tons, amplitude will be amounted to 47.5% .

2, cultivate cost to rise drive new season soja to open level value tall

Occupy according to concerning show, this year of Heilongjiang soja cultivate cost, cent is 3, be a farmer is basic contract cropland, cost is 2000 yuan about every tons; The 2nd subcontract ground that is a farmer, cost is 3800 yuan about / ton; The 3rd it is the farm contracts the ground, cost also is in 3800 yuan / or so tons. Will integratedly look, heilongjiang area soja cultivates cost on average is 2700 yuan / ton. Cost relatively amplitude is bigger for last year, among them chemical fertilizer increased 55% , the seed increased 41% , cost of rural subcontract land raises 21% , the farm contracts cost raises 19% , integrated cost raises 31% , average every mus throw 312.53 yuan. Although at present domestic soja price is in the low inside year, but because soja cultivates cost to increase, reach domestic soja bought the price to be mixed in the end of the year last year of next the beginning of the year explode go up, sell late gain profit than what sell early should many tall, above element all raises the psychological price that makes fabaceous farming and psychology of cherish carry out increases, 10 million yuan can receive 3000 tons of soja last year, predict this year 10 million yuan can 2500 come ton of soja.
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