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Position:Prediction Analysis

Fabaceous city forecasts: Pressure still heavy

From;    Author:Stand originally

In the course July after dropping considerably, the near future is domestic and international soja price appeared to stop drop rebound impetus, domestic soja brunt added up to price of fix a date to return 4300 yuan afresh / ton above, but to price of later period soja go situation, current market feels generally relatively confused, if look much person whole July drop regarding is fabaceous price a few years the callback of big ox city, soja of the city after thinking continues likely still to rush tall, and be expected to fall person the circumstance photograph that thinks to be the same as early days market is compared, no matter be the state of supply and demand of the external environment of the market or soja itself,all had appeared to be changed apparently, show level market rebounding is pair of correction that early days drops this, price of later period beans still drops likely. The author thinks, although come to those who see soja for a long time go situation still not Anacreontic, whether does the bovine city of whole commodity market end to also want to do farther observation, but go from metaphase in light of situation, especially a few months before the end of the year, soja still should maintain weak situation situation, period price is in rebound still continue likely after the end next explore.
Above all, from the point of macroscopical environment, the impetus hopeful that the dollar rebounds continues to continue, heavy goods price of the whole world will still bear pressure. Analyse this domestic and international heavy goods drop, go with the dollar greatly situation having close relationship, and of the dollar go situation concern besides the economic atmosphere that is the same as the United States, the economy that also is the same as euro area is concerned. From the point of American circumstance, accident of American trade deficit reduced a dollar to bring June prop up, american Department of Commerce announces trade deficit accident decreased in June to 56.77 billion dollar, reduce 2.43 billion dollar than May, capital project is flowed into completely increase to also make dollar performance strong, capital flowed into United States of report of American Ministry of finance completely in June for 51.1 billion dollar, outclass the 12.3 billion dollar May. And in light of the economy from euro area, according to the data that announced on August 14, this year the 2nd quarter, before euro region economy is compared drop first quarter 0.2% , this is since beginning relevant statistic 1995 oneself euro region economy first annulus loses growth than appearing. This shows euro region economy also is begun get into trouble gradually by the influence of American economy, this also conduces to a dollar appearing rebound, and of the dollar rebound to will be opposite undoubtedly the produce price that includes soja inside forms pressure.
Next, from the point of the demand of soja itself, as a result of occurrence fall after a rise of grease product price, soja demand also is immersed in stage by stage low fan. From the point of the circumstance of near future spot market, current Heilongjiang each lard factory continues to stop close, have a few oily factory only a few buying soja with additional stock. Soja yield an area buys the price to maintain stability basically. Although southern trafficker is right,produce grow in quantity of area soja inquiry, but did not have buy apiration, make overall clinch a deal not quite. And the goods in stock in farmer hand is not much, psychology of its cherish carry out is serious, below the case that buys price on the low side in trafficker yield an area, clinch a deal actually be restricted further. In sell an area, food beans sale price somewhat fall after a rise, clinch a deal less, and state of mind of panic of a few trafficker is clear, low stimulation clinchs a deal, but people is bought go up to be not bought drop psychological existence, make clinch a deal to did not get coming true, bring about market soja price to continue then soft.
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