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Paddy rice analysed Chinese grain oily market in August 2008 report

来源: 作者:Stand originally 时间:2008-12-23 Tag: 点击:
August, the structure with strong weak rice of home market paddy still exists. Make work in farmer cherish and buy an enterprise gradually below the influence of hasten reason, early rice buys plan to put delay, but the price still is in exalted; And Chen Dao puts a quantity dried up, the price is strong. Rice market still is in consumption off-season, weak potential of fatigued and weak price runs demand; Consumption of sex of the group after entering the last ten-day of a month and festal spending draw near, the price somewhat get warm again after a cold spell. One, the paddy that hold city in the palm trades clinch a deal rate small force is abate lowest bought price of valence paddy contest to the sale buys an activity because of early rice and lose certain consequence this month, clinch a deal rate on the low side, plan 4 times to sell two hundred and ninety-eight thousand five hundred tons respectively, two hundred and five thousand two hundred tons, two hundred and forteen thousand five hundred tons mix one hundred and fifty thousand five hundred tons, clinch a deal actually fifty-one thousand nine hundred tons, twenty-five thousand three hundred tons, 60 thousand tons mix 1000 tons, clinch a deal rate for 17.38% , 12.33% , 28.14% with 0.66% . Investigate its reason, it is early days enterprise obtains certain supply of goods through contest price sale, and early rice is bought this month become the market to go up main activity, attend lowest to buy price of valence paddy contest the sale is not active; 2 it is paddy strong rice weak structure makes shrink of treatment company profit, rice demand not flourishing, and oil is branny wait for by-product price to also slide considerably, stop production of partial treatment company is wait-and-see. The long-grained nonglutinous rice in later period is about to appear on the market, predicting lowest buys sale of paddy contest price to suffer its to affect still too won't active, but its compare the sale price with market price inferior case can be the way extraction grain with good business of a few treatment. 2, early rice price still is in price of exalted later period will look forward to is firm the early rice at the beginning of this month buys the price to continue tall, achieve the psychological price of farmer basically, the farmer sells grain enthusiasm to rise, early rice produces an area, sell an area to buy a quantity to increase apparently, but buy main body as each gradually job of hasten reason and rotate of early rice of various reserve enterprise, filling warehouse is finished, buy plan somewhat rein in, hasten of later period price is firm, but still be in exalted. Up to on August 20, 8 early long-grained nonglutinous rice such as Jiangxi, Hunan advocate produce a province (area) management company accumulative total buys of all kinds commissariat to produce early long-grained nonglutinous rice newly 2008 4.107 million tons, than going up year of the corresponding period increase 1.555 million tons. Its China has food company to buy 2.875 million tons, occupy 70% what buy gross, than going up year of the corresponding period increase 1.258 million tons. To the end of August, each district early rice is bought already was close to end, later period is propped up in what demand of industry of cost and ground rice, brewing restores below, price hopeful look forward to is firm, early days goes up an exorbitant region price may rational fall after a rise. 3, in long-grained nonglutinous rice is fragmentary appear on the market hopeful of later period price leaves high the last ten-day of a month already drew near in August in the large area of long-grained nonglutinous rice is reaped, specific area already had fragmentary appear on the market. Predict price of the long-grained nonglutinous rice in this year also can leave high. Above all, the Gao Kaigao of early rice price walks along what the price goes strong to semilate rice to anticipate, do the price of in former years of early rice, semilate rice compare, semilate rice is met prep above early rice 0.03 yuan / or so jins, semilate rice price continues likely this year posture of early rice high price, and the addition that cultivates cost is become rise in price inherent power. Next, acquired September gas turns gradually cool, rice sales volume increases, treatment company go into operation is enough, increase to semilate rice demand; On the other hand phenomenon of carry out of cherish of farmer early days magnified supply and demand contradicts further. 4, get warm again after a cold spell of demand of area of firm a system of fixed quotas for marketing of price of northeast round-grained nonglutinous rice this month, purchase and sale of whole of market of northeast paddy rice is insipid, still show valence does not have city state. The surplus grain in farmer hand is finite, most paddy rice machines company stop production or reduction of output, bought an enterprise to because can close without grain,also stop to buy an activity. Before new paddy appears on the market, as food source level reduce ceaselessly, and rice demand will restore somewhat, the possibility that northeast rises in price is larger. The rice of around area early days such as Beijing, Shanghai is fatigued and weak, and northeast paddy decreases continuously, railroad carries difficulty, content sheds cost to increase, northeast rice arrives measure apparent on the low side, the price picks up somewhat. Because be in,value generally September prices, the middle ten days of a month began Jiangsu and other places to machine an enterprise in August active stock up, and trafficker purchases a quantity to also increase somewhat to rice, rice producer price rises the trend is shown stage by stage, rice machines business confidence to increase accordingly, later period start working is sufficient. As weather turned September cool, suffer spending of school opening group and stimulation of double holiday spending, rice hopeful greets consumptive busy season, the price rises sign is clear. 5, supply is ample international rice price continues after fall after a rise endured the torment of price of early days tall rice, world each country adopted policy measure to encourage a farmer to grow rice, with assuring commissariat oneself are self-sufficient, the newest data that releases according to American Ministry of Agriculture shows, because India restricts rice exit, come to Pakistan may replace India to squeeze rice of body whole world to export big country for the first time for years. Rice of early days paddy advocate produce a country to realize a bumper harvest and restore exit in succession, make international rice price lasts fall after a rise, and rice of Tai Zhu that goes weak to reach 2.1 million tons sells a plan this month is right more its form further pressure. End the end of this month, quoted price of rice of Thailand 100%B class is 720 dollars, quoted price of evaporate cereal rice is 750-770 dollar, than going up 50 dollars control lunar fall after a rise. Current, international market rice supplies in order, the price has continue the risk of fall after a rise. September is revolving of domestic rice prices advantageous period. The school terms begins, group spending increases; Chen Dao puts a quantity temporary shortage, and double holiday spending stimulates production, drive demand of unprocessed food grains; Below this kind of environment, gap of little supply and demand is magnified easily, the enterprise should be rational treat prices. Predict September get warm again after a cold spell of paddy rice market, the value is little rise. Origin:


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